Startup Problems and Decision Making

A general was to attack a base that was directly across a river. On the opposite side of the river was a 30 foot wall where infantry would fire on the soldiers as soon as they began to cross the river, leading to an easy defeat. Defeat and death seemed inevitable to most of the men that were on the front lines who would have to cross the river. Soldiers thought about their life and loved ones as they prepared mentally for the command that would lead them into immanent demise. The general could have simply made the command and attack, but he thought deeper. He recognized he was not in the optimal position to win the battle, he understood that the opponent would be looking for an attack from the rear and they were prepared for that as well. The general cared deeply for his people and would not let them die so easily, as he had family too.

That evening, the general sent a few men upstream on a covert mission. A few days passed and the men came back having completed the clandestine mission, a few were left behind upstream. The general prepared his men for attack. He commanded his men right before sundown to start retreating down river. The opposing forces saw this movement and prepared for the attack from the rear. A select few of them were commanded to cross the river downstream and begin attacking from the rear at a specific time.

Then, when the sun had fallen, and complete darkness swept over the land, he commanded his men to return to their original positions upstream at the face of the river and prepare for attack. The men who were commanded to cross downstream, starting firing at the exact time they were told, and the agents involved in the clandestine mission that had stayed behind had built a dam upstream which caused the river water to stop flowing, allowing for easy passage. With all of the opposing forces focused on the attack from the rear, all of the men crossed the river, climbed the wall, attacked and defeated the opposing forces with ease.

This general used a simple thought process of "leveled" thinking that can be translated into anything we do in business:

1st Level: Your cards

2nd Level: What does your opponent have

3rd Level: What does your opponent think you have

4th Level: What does your opponent think you think he has

5th level: What does your opponent think you think he thinks you have

In school, we were faced with problems that we were to solve within a set period of time, inhibiting deep thought. We rushed to be the first person to solve those problems, to be the first person to stand up and turn in our test, mainly because there was a time limit. Speed did not always guarantee the highest probability of success though, it just fed our human passion of competitiveness and ego. In the SAT's, we were encouraged to skip difficult problems, and come back to it after the easy one's were solved. While this is a good approach to this specific test, it does not translate well into the world of business or startups where you risk reward, your security, and name.

In business, we are faced with problems that are much more complex, that have never been solved before, that require time and patience for solving them in the most optimal way, with the highest return for the business and stakeholders. Oftentimes we all make hasty decisions, or go with whatever solution that special "someone" who has had prior success, comes up with. We neglect to dive deeper to assess all variables, which proves in to be much riskier. Maybe people make these decisions because its less painful to think deeper, or to risk the comfort of having a position or status. It seems like it is easier for many people to say "I agree" as opposed to introducing new variables into the the decision making process. Most are comfortable relying on others with PHD's, IVY league educations or those who have "been there and done that". People shouldn't rely, they should listen, collaborate, and be mentored. Those that are true PHD's "Poor, Hungry and Driven" - AJ Jaghori, see things from a completely different light. With all these people combined, people can make the best decisions with the highest return.

There are many startups that give up prior to reaching a breakthrough in thinking where success is achieved. Not all problems are solved yet, even those that are, they are not always the most optimal solution.

The moral of the story --- don't fear or accept defeat, be patient, take time, think deeper because you can solve anything you put you mind to.